50-week
moving average
$77,116.19
PRICE ABOVE · +6.00%
Bitcoin is 6.00% above its 50-week trend reference.
Spot reference $81,745.86 · 2026-10-12
Weekly close 2026-10-11
Opening Bitcoin analysis…
Opening Bitcoin analysis…
Four core indicators. One view of Bitcoin’s market cycle.
Bitcoin is 6.00% above its 50-week trend reference.
Spot reference $81,745.86 · 2026-10-12
Weekly close 2026-10-11
Long-term price reference—not a guaranteed floor.
Spot reference $81,745.86 · 2026-10-12
Weekly close 2026-10-11
US ISM manufacturing remains above 50, with a softer monthly reading.
Sep 2026 · Previous 54.6 (Aug)
Published 1 Oct · 10:00 ET
111D $71,842.98
350D × 2 $154,549.45
2026-10-12 · Moving-average gap
A missing crossover does not rule out a market top.
A mixed cycle picture. Bitcoin is above its 50-week average and above its 200-week reference. Manufacturing is in our expansion regime, with a −0.1 point monthly change; Pi is below its crossover threshold. These are context, not an investment rating.
Bitstamp BTCUSD, USD (not USDT). 3,000 consecutive positive daily closes from 2018-07-27 through 2026-10-12. Retrieved 2026-10-13T20:24:24.531768+00:00; 3 bounded public API requests. No live indicator feed.
Each date labels its UTC daily candle; its close becomes final at the following 00:00 UTC. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC, using Sunday’s completed daily close. Exactly 50 or 200 full seven-day weekly closes are averaged, with no EMA or daily substitute. Latest completed week: 2026-10-11.
Price distances use the same last completed daily close $81,745.86, not the independent ticker quote. Weekly marks remain unchanged until the next completed week. No duplicate days, gaps, forward fills or venue splices. Invalid data withholds indicators.
Bitstamp API and commercial-use terms ↗https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=1000&end=1791849599&exclude_current_candle=true
1000 rows · 2026-10-13T20:24:23.483800+00:00
https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=1000&end=1705449599&exclude_current_candle=true
1000 rows · 2026-10-13T20:24:24.027143+00:00
https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=1000&end=1619049599&exclude_current_candle=true
1000 rows · 2026-10-13T20:24:24.531768+00:00
SMA = sum of completed closes / window. Distance = 100 × (daily reference / weekly SMA − 1). Indicators are calculated over the entire validated snapshot before display ranges are filtered; ALL means available history, not Bitcoin’s entire history.
Pi ratio = SMA111 / (2 × SMA350); gap = 100 × (1 − ratio). An upward cross needs previous SMA111 ≤ previous 2 × SMA350 and current SMA111 > current 2 × SMA350. Last observed cross is limited to valid available history, not an all-time claim.
Philip Swift Pi Cycle method ↗PMI: source-checked 12-month excerpt supplied by owner; checked 2026-10-13, published 2026-10-01T10:00:00-04:00. September 54.5, August 54.6; change −0.1 index points, not percent. Regimes use level only: above 60 TOPPING; above 50 through 60 EXPANSION; below 50 CONTRACTION; exactly 50 NEUTRAL. Monthly change does not alter the regime. These regimes are ours, not official ISM classifications.
ISM September manufacturing report ↗
ISM-authored publication release ↗
PMI does not deterministically forecast Bitcoin. Moving averages are not floors or fair value. No crossover is not “safe.” Education only; no buy/sell scores or guaranteed outcomes.